[Podcast] Demographics and Politics Part 2

demographics and politics

This election cycle is going to cause a major shift in the demographics and politics and conversely will impact professional practices.

Watch the video here:

A Note from Scott McDonald on This Week’s Episode:

This is the second episode of the Politics and Demographics podcast. 
Last week, we discussed the implications of how the Mid-Term Elections are going to affect doctors.  Our theme was on the House of Representatives (Congress) and some of the changes that are likely to occur.  This week we will consider what will likely change with a turnover, even by a single seat, in a 50-50 Senate.  Polling has shown that Americans (mostly young Americans) are going to be surprised and even alarmed by the likely changes that will occur.  We do not live in a Democracy and very few are aware of how a Republic works.

This is a solid primer on what people need to know.

I am a little worried about the surprise and perceptions that will come in America regardless of who wins.  There are a fixed number of Senators.  It is their relative party affiliations that are going to be the cause of all the heartburn.

This is information you need to know.

Read the Transcript Here:

Introduction: [00:00:01] Welcome to the Perfect Place to put a practice podcast by Scott McDonald and Dr. Demographics. The best source of demographic, psychographic and marketing information for professionals.

Scott McDonald: [00:00:14] Hello, this is Scott McDonald of Dr. Demographics. And today we’re going to be doing part two of the Politics and Demographics Program. This is an addition to the first part, one that we did previously, and it’s, I think, pretty interesting and it will deal with topics we have not discussed before. Last time we talked about the House of Representatives and how the changes in demographics are going to influence government. But today we’re going to focus upon the Senate and what makes it a different body than the House and what it’s going to mean to doctors to have this election go on in November. Now, really, most of the efforts that we’re putting out are we have to consider a process. Now, when it comes to politics, politics is true. There’s an event, there’s an election day, but typically it’s building. It’s right now we’re in the summer of 2022. And the things that have happened really started last year in 2021. But we’re doing something now that is building upon that. So let’s talk about politics and demographics. Part two. As I said, this is a progression from what we started with in part one where we’re talking about more local elections and how the numbers of people is going to affect the policies that are important for the country to know. Some people may say, Well, why do I need to know this? Because unfortunately, in my discussions with doctors, I have found a large number of doctors don’t know the things I’m going to tell them.

Scott McDonald: [00:02:08] And I don’t want them to be ignorant of what’s building or what’s coming. And what’s coming is going to be quite emotional and quite a big deal. So please stick with me. Last week, we discussed how politics related to demographics. But the following The power shifts in America. You only have to follow where people are moving now in part one, where people are moving. What parts of the United States are growing and what parts are shrinking? But in this part, we’re talking about how Americans and their opinions are changing. And what’s happening is really quite dramatic. And I don’t want to say it’s unprecedented because, well, we’ve been around for a while. In fact, a lot of people don’t know this. The politics of the United States, and its means of government is actually older than most other countries on Earth. Now, this is a good rule of thumb for the House of Representatives when it comes to figuring out where the country is going. Literally, people are voting with their feet. They’re moving to one part of the country or another. But that is not what we’re talking about today. People are changing within a certain set state. And that is changing the way our government is making regulations. You only have to look at what happened with Roe versus Wade to realize this is such a big deal. Now, some people believed that evil Trump is gone. He doesn’t have any influence anymore.

Scott McDonald: [00:03:44] We can do what we want. Well, didn’t quite happen that way, did it? A lot of the policies that were put into place by the naming of judges and policies that were regulated in different states are just now coming to fruition. The Senate is a more staid political body than the House. In other words, it doesn’t shift fast. The shifts in demographics are going to influence the Senate as well as the House. But it is going to be different in how it is influenced. Now, let’s deal with this in this episode. In the Senate, the amount of representation does not change. In other words, the number of senators in the country is set. But in this election cycle, several Senate seats may change party identification or affiliation. So what’s likely to happen is no. There’s not going to be a bunch of new senators, but the political affiliation in the Senate is going to make a difference. And that is how laws are changed, and most especially, regulations are changed. And that’s what doctors need to know. Now dramatic shifts are smaller when we discuss demographics, but in some ways, they can be more dramatic and important for doctors. This is especially true of the Senate. Now you recognize that each state regulates its own medical community. Who gets licensed? How many people are given licenses? What they have to do for licensure, and how their practices are regulated. Government funding is regulated in the House, but policy and that is what is so important in this fall election is regulated in the Senate.

Scott McDonald: [00:05:47] If you want to know how this is going to affect your practice, you have to know what those senators are going to do and what the Senate as a whole is likely to implement. And this can be a big dramatic thing. So let’s talk about politics and demographics, and I’m going to try to make this brief. But I want to emphasize the importance of what we’re talking about. The shifts in the Senate are going to come. For a long time we have not had shifts. In fact, usually the Senate changed only one or two seats in the election cycle. We may actually have quite a large number of potential Senate seats change hands. And let me explain real quickly why. For one thing, the president of the United States leads a significant coalition within the Senate. The vice president of the United States is the president of the Senate. And you may say, well, what power do they have? It’s just a bucket of warm spit. That was how it was described at one time. Yeah, that’s true. But if you have the ship that is more than two or three senators and you start looking at five or six like we’re going to likely have in this election, it’s going to make a difference to doctors of how their businesses, their practices are regulated, what they’re allowed to do, where they’re allowed to go. Public funding of health care is a big deal.

Scott McDonald: [00:07:27] Now she is in the Senate, may not be dramatic in one election cycle to another, but the party is going to be volatile. I’m sorry. Is going to be very volatile this year. Party affiliations and coalitions between senators are going to be significant. Now, let me explain something to you that you may or may not know. The Democrat brand is in trouble. For a long time, the dominant party in the Senate was the Democrats. It may have been like that for a decade or longer. The Democrat brand right now is in trouble. And one reason is the president of the United States is very unpopular. And in fact, President Biden, I don’t know when you’re watching this, maybe the least popular president the United States has had ever. And unfortunately. The vice president, the president of the Senate, who is of the same party that the president is, is equally unpopular in spite of what some news people may tell you, in spite of what columnists may mention when one party takes a nosedive. It is going to matter a lot in what kind of policy gets passed. And that happened in Richard Nixon’s era. So the Democrat brand is a little bit toxic and the Republican brand used to be in those two brands are shifting in their popularity and their distribution in the country. The changes in federal regulations and health care may be the biggest issue in this election. Now, does everybody remember Obamacare? Well, it was a Democrat initiative.

Scott McDonald: [00:09:22] Barack Obama was extremely popular and considered very powerful. But unfortunately. His mandate was not as strong as what Democrats thought, and therefore, with a weaker mandate, a lot of things he proposed and wanted to have happen didn’t happen. Do you remember the lunch that we had of Obamacare? It didn’t really go anywhere. It was kind of a muffed opportunity and thus federal regulations and policies within health care. Didn’t happen the way that everybody thought they were going to. It didn’t appear as though the president was really in charge of his own policy. Now, that is not a criticism. It’s simply a fact of how people thought of things. I don’t know. What do you think is going to happen this year if we have a significant shift in what what party rules the country? Whichever side wins this fall. And I keep in mind the Senate at this moment is 5050. It can be very big. You say, well, wait a second, we still have Kamala Harris, the vice president. Well, she’s the tiebreaker. But if you have one or two senators all of a sudden shift from one party to another, and that party shift is, well, they’re loyal to their party. The changes can be extremely big. The changes to Obamacare can be much more significant if there is a shift in the Senate. And a lot of people are expecting that going to happen. Funding for and issues, especially with a large deficit, is also on the table.

Scott McDonald: [00:11:19] So what’s Obamacare, popular or not? Well, some people can say it was or it wasn’t. The truth is, it was kind of muddled and it is not survived challenges on a very small scale. While the number of senators will not change representation on standing, committees like Health and Human Services will be in flux. The two parties will gain or lose power based upon membership. Even one flipping a single state will matter. Now, right now, the Democrats have that power with the vice president’s vote. But what happens if the president, vice president, become even less popular? And what happens if the senators themselves form a coalition within the body to start telling doctors what they can do and can’t do within their practices? We’ve already been through the things about abortion, but what about funding states who want to have policies and how many students will they allow in their medical and dental schools? What regulations do we have for foreign trained doctors coming into the United States? That is a topic we have not even begun to touch, but it’s a demographic topic that doctors need to know and should be aware of in the next election cycle. If you have a lot of foreign trained doctors and we accept their licensure in their country and then the states will accept their licensure as well. This can change what you do every day. Now there are a few things that you must keep in mind, and that’s the whole point of this episode.

Scott McDonald: [00:13:09] Public opinions showed that faith in the political process is at a low point. In short, no matter what the federal government does right now and even some state governments, if people don’t like it or don’t want to follow it. These laws that they want to implement and regulations are not going to pass. And that’s what makes this election so important. Young voters and this is also tracked by public opinion polls have checked out. There are lots of reasons for this now, not the least of which is young voters feel disenfranchized. There have been a lot of shenanigans that have happened in the government and therefore they’re kind of cynical. They don’t think that their votes are going to count. If you look at very large states like California and New York, you may assume that everything is going to be just. Everybody’s going to go along with what they did before. But it doesn’t take very many votes and it doesn’t take a big law to change what doctors do every day and where they want to practice. How they want to practice. Now particular groups have an outsized influence. And we’ll talk about which groups representing the different demographic groups in just a moment. But let me go back to this thing about young voters. Everybody likes to attract the young. Oh, the young are the best. But the reason they kind of like it is because older voters are set in their ways and they don’t want things to change very much.

Scott McDonald: [00:14:49] Everything about Medicare is set by older voters. They’re the ones who vote on these issues. And boy, they watch their representatives like a hawk, particularly senators. Now, young voters don’t particularly care about it and they are want to take risks and do things that haven’t been done before. That’s the nature of young voters. But what’s happening here is the particular group that I’m mentioning in point three are younger voters. That’s one of them. And they’re losing their influence much more than they ever did before. And let me explain what I mean by this. There are three kinds of groups in particular I want to discuss. The first one is religious groups. Now, when there are lots of coalitions that are being formed in the country, groups of people that will vote for one candidate or party much more than another, you look at how they’re divided. And right now, if you look at religious groups, they’re they don’t appear in most people’s minds to be a strong coalition, but they are religious groups. Take a particular faith. They tend to vote and act together, whatever those things are that make them into a coalition and make them unified. It gives them an outside outsized influence. The same thing happens with age groups. As I was just mentioned, the older people, if they get together, are really going to change the way that Medicare works. They’ll change how people and how much people are paid when they retire because they’ve been paying into the system for a long time.

Scott McDonald: [00:16:35] One thing to know religious people tend to vote as a bloc. And the same thing is true of age groups. Age coalitions can turn an election on a very small number of people, and that’s likely to happen this fall. Nobody’s talking about it, but it’s really likely. The other thing is regional groups and we don’t often think about people in one particular area like the South or the West or the Rocky Mountain States. We don’t think of the Eastern Seaboard as being a regional group, but they are and they form coalitions within the Senate to decide how things are going to be the way they like it. For a long time, the Senate has been pretty much ignoring people from the South. And with Florida and Texas, North Carolina growing, these states are gaining more and more power. And in the Senate, that’s where we’re going to see it most. Now. I’m not trying to say it’s good or it’s bad. I am going to say it’s true, however. So when you look at the abortion debate, it happens that a large number of people who are against abortion are in the southern states. And these formed a coalition that made judges and got them elected and appointed. And that’s going to continue to happen. So I’m not trying to say it’s good or bad. I’m just going to say, look for the regional representation in the Senate to influence significantly what’s going to happen in the future.

Scott McDonald: [00:18:23] As I said, the number of senators isn’t going to change, but the representation of of senators is going to change and their affiliations are going to be in flux. At some time, people are going to scream bloody murder. They’re going to say, it’s so unfair. We’ve got to get rid of all those senators that disagree with us. But it takes six years to do that. Remember, the senators are elected for a long period of time, and the intention was not to make it quite as dramatic a body. And that’s why it happened. So if the Senate does change, as I assume it’s going to doctors, you have to know who your senators are and early on support or reject them on behalf of health care. Now low turnout is expected. In this economy. And as I mentioned. The young are not going to vote. Although some people say, you know, they’re always good for that. But the truth is, people who are new voters are easily influenced. It’s the older voters that are really going to to be important. The low turnout is going to be among the young voters. Now the economy is something that older voters care much more about than younger voters who don’t see that owning a home is going to be that important for them. Trust me on this one. Now, there is a term that I want to introduce you to you.

Scott McDonald: [00:20:00] It means new race in Japanese. It is shiny, Judy. And and what that is, it’s a tendency and it’s well known in Japan, but in Europe and other parts of Asia and even in the United States, it’s also true. These are the young people who don’t serve in the military. They live in the extra bedroom of their parents, and they’re just kind of disconnected from society. They watch a lot of video games and they watch a lot of television. But this population is young and well. Voter participation projections are showing that 45% of voters are in the baby boom generation. The Gen Xers, which are right behind them, will only be about 31% of the population. Therefore, a disproportionately large number of people who are older in this election cycle are going to decide what happens in the United States. Yes, there are going to be some people who are upset. I grant you that. But, you know, when we have a lot of people who are older who are being beaten to death. And that’s happening in our major cities. They’re going to do whatever they can to make laws that protect the elderly, particularly elderly women. So this thing is not going to sit back idly. They’re going to do what they can. And voters have to be ready for these changes in a law and order, presidency and Senate. Now, I have mentioned to you before this was last week how birth rates, immigration rates start up, businesses, all these things are going to matter, the ten factors here.

Scott McDonald: [00:21:54] And most people don’t recognize that. In fact, there is a power that comes, which is these things. So who’s going to have the babies? Well, whoever is having children is going to have a disproportionately large impact upon the laws and regulations in the United States. Taxes are going to change everybody. Crime statistics are going to change. Who can build a house and how much that house is worth is going to change. Immigration is often led by age. Start up businesses, home construction, family formation. These again are set by age. Now, I have mentioned this before and some people were pretty surprised by it. When I talk about pet ownership being an indicator of what the election cycle is going to be, that’s good news for veterinarians because they are locked in to the people who are taking their pets to the animal hospital. And therefore their power is increasing. I know some people are going to think I’m crazy when I say all this, but as I’ve been looking at these statistics that are being published, you’ve got to realize this is serious stuff. I’ve already done a whole episode on Hispanics, and it isn’t the very young Hispanics. It’s the Hispanics that have children and that are elderly that are going to make policy on immigration that is going to matter to you. Now, the savings rate has always been an issue for people who are older, how much they can save, what they want to do with their money when they’re saving, it’s going to matter.

Scott McDonald: [00:23:40] Now all of these things combined, combined can sound scary to people who are in a location where people tend to be young and where they tend to be single. But that has always been true. I’m just going to say that in this election cycle, it’s going to matter more than it ever has before. You want to know what the future of where to put a practice is, and you want to know what practice is going to be important. Look at these ten items because that’s your predictor of the future. If you want to contact us, please give us a call at 800 8490499. You can always go to info at doctor demographics dot com and give us an email or visit us at doctor demographics. I am going to be doing a series of four, maybe more in the next few months that will answer the question. But it’s different than anything we’ve done. You see, before we used to say. Is this place better than that place to put a practice? Instead, we’re going to say, Where are the places in the United States, the whole United States that you should consider to put an orthodontic practice or an end to practice or an emergency care facility or on oral maxillofacial surgery practice. It’s going to be inexpensive. Very cheap, and I will provide you a list of the locations as local as I can.

Scott McDonald: [00:25:23] But you should know this is not going to be something for everybody. But it is going to tell you where to look and where to go. We’re going to talk more specifically about these areas in the program, but it’s going to be about an hour long and we’re going to be as specific as we can. I want you to understand why North Carolina is going to be a particularly important place when it comes to the new media that’s coming out. Why Arizona? Nevada. Idaho. Georgia and Florida, parts of Texas, not all of Texas, but parts of Texas are going to matter to you a lot. I’m going to want you to understand what is going on in the Midwest, because people who are in school right now, particularly in the Eastern Seaboard, think they know, but they don’t. So I’m going to tell you, this is going to be a pretty fact filled presentation. I’m going to ask you to record it. And I will have an accompanying spreadsheet that will tell you where to go. But I’m not just saying, oh, this place is better than that place. You’ll already know that. What’s important is if you’re looking for the top 25 places to be an orthodontist, for example, this will be an important event for you. This is Scott McDonald. I look forward to talking to you. If we can help you figure out the perfect place to put a practice. Give us a call. Take care.